Posts Tagged ‘Tilting at Windmills’

The Curse of Siragusa

Tony Siragusa is the nuclear option in Fox Sports' ongoing war against dramatic pause.

Tony Siragusa

Every Sunday he roves the sidelines ensuring that even the slightest moment of dead air is filled with sense-dulling stupidity. "I love coming to Cleveland because they've got the best nacho cheese in the league here. Ok, back to you guys." Last week, he told viewers that Redskins quarterback Mark Brunell had been practicing all week with wet balls to prepare for the depressing perpetual downpour in Seattle. Not content to leave it at that, he then demonstrated the act of submerging a football in a bucket of water.

If Scooter the Talking Baseball wasn't evidence enough, it should now be obvious that Fox's interest is machiavellian masochism rather than the enjoyment of genuine fans. They know that you will watch, and they want to make it hurt as much as possible. It is therefore left to us to take action, get involved, and improve the quality of our football experience. Here are some thoughts I had, which I urge you to try the next time Siragusa visits your NFL city. Bear in mind that these may require felonious access to the playing surface.

  • "Steal his nose," refuse to give it back. Let Siragusa chase you for three hours.
  • With several accomplices, distract Siragusa with a system of flashing mirrors. (Unlikely to work in winter.)
  • Stage a sham rib cookoff near the stadium prior to kickoff; lace Tony's racks with Lunesta.

Ok, back to you guys.

The Accidental Utility of Slashdot

I've been reading Slashdot for the last year and a half or so. I stayed away from it until I downloaded an aggregator that had it preinstalled, and, well, it just kind of stayed there. I don't post comments myself, but I find find those who do interesting. Of course, it's probably not for the reasons they had intended.

I think Slashdot is a great way to measure my own susceptibility to argumentum ad verecundiam. I do this (retrospectively) by reflecting on to what degree I have agreed with the posts scoring "5, Informative" or "5, Insightful" when attached to topics I know relatively little about. I contrast that with how ignorant posts with the same rating seem when in reply to topics I know inside and out.

What is more likely? That only the high-scoring commentators on "my" topics make serious errors? Or that the overall intelligence and ability of the commentators is fairly uniform, and I attribute too much credit to them when I don't know the material? Meeting one or two posters in real life might bias your response, but I digress.

In Humans First Arose in Asia, for example, some of the comments currently scored as fives give away obvious misconceptions of the time frame of human evolution. There are good comments too, but the scoring system does a poor job of differentiating them. Competitors like Digg and Reddit suffer from similar problems with varying degrees of severity. (I can't read Digg at all, and I'm currently giving Reddit a "time-out" after it linked to one too many pseudoscientific/conspiracy-theory articles.)

So what's the point here? Just that adequate English skills combined with an argument that sounds logical can easily be mistaken for an argument that is correct.

I’m All Sixes and Sevens and Nines

The following is a review of A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, by John Allen Paulos.

One of my inaugural tasks at my current job was developing a technical analysis package for market data. I have to admit I rather enjoyed this, for a few reasons only tangentially related to the specific technology at hand.

First, I like solving math problems–always have. Writing programs that do this for me are more enjoyable still. Second, there was the shameful thrill of scrawling some equations involving capital sigmas (the kind of thing those of us destined to be computer scientists are doing by eighth grade) on a whiteboard and watching the panicked expressions of the business and finance people present.

I guiltily concede that the latter motivation was the dominant one. I still keep a sheet with sigmas painted all over it within reach. Anytime I’m asked about the output of my analysis package, I produce it from deep within my desk which by the way, overwhelmingly contains only ketchup (Heinz) and straws (plastic, non-bending). I’ll scribble some new symbols on it and say something like, “so as you can see, the limit of this term as phi approaches infinity is…” and before I’ve finished the sentence the person has muttered something in bewilderment and shuffled away.

dice

I’m not necessarily doing this out of malice or contempt, it’s just that I realized a long time ago that the technical analysis of market data is largely a crock. I’ve always carried this nagging little fact with me, and at times I’ve pondered the morality of having this job at all. So I’m not really doing the user a disservice here, unless I’m somehow expected to explain to everyone in the world that you can find meaningful patterns in any set of data–words in the bible, petals on a flower, sand on the beach, or the price of Superconductor (NasdaqSC:SCON). Chances are, the pattern that you discover holds no predictive power.

So it’s really not important to the person asking what the answer is, it’s just reassuring to believe that I possess one. In the end, they will probably make about as much money as chance would dictate. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. If they do happen upon the holy grail, that ineffable oracle of a model that really can forecast the future, it is as likely to be in spite of my explanation as it is to be caused by it. Populus vult decipi; decipiatur.

How odd it is, I found myself thinking while reading this book, that there exists a Nobel prize for Economics yet none for Mathematics. Is my support for this book just another example of confirmation bias? I’m obviously not qualified to say. I suggest you judge it for yourself.

Interview Questions for Eccentrics

In my last post I alluded to interview quizzers. These are [straw man alert] egotistical people who assume that any smart person must know the highly-specific information that they themselves have learned in the last month. "I don't know, but I'll google it and tell you in a few minutes," is what I would recommend saying to such a person. While there are also many really excellent guides out there that will help you become a good interviewer, I think there is one area in which all are lacking. Naturally, I am referring to completely askew interview questions.

We've all had interviews like this. Maybe the interviewees just don't know anything. Maybe they're biology majors that your boss scheduled for you because "their resume looked kind of interesting." Maybe they're Operations Research people interviewing for your programming job, and they made it through HR because "all engineers are the same." Maybe they have a year of experience, yet somehow six pages of bold acronyms ("HTML, DHTML, ASP, VB6, J2EE, XML" - I haven't seen one with AJAX yet but I'll let you know) and this successfully fooled someone upstream.

You could gripe and moan about getting some better resume screeners around here, dammit, or you could make the most of it. Once you've gotten the deer-in-the-headlights blank stare trying to work through an algorithm or write a C function, you still have the awkward remainder of the interview to worry about. You could waste time explaining the position or talking about their fraternity, or you could politely say you don't think things will work out (I've never had the heart to do this). There is a better way.

In an ideal world, all interviews are an uplifting experience. Even if the candidate isn't qualified, you still want them to walk away with something–a warm fuzzy feeling, perhaps. Personally, I try to apply my own philosophy of making everybody's day just a little more surreal.

To that end, I thought I would share two of my favorite questions for this purpose. The good thing about each of these is that they leave a slight (yet tangible) opening for a clever candidate to find redemption.

Where is November?

This is the great grandaddy of them all, when it comes to programmer interviews. This question is lifted from The Mythical Man Month, a classic of software writing. Fred Brooks explains that the point of this question is to determine whether or not the person thinks in three dimensions.

The idea that great programmers think in (at least) three dimensions is quite valid, if you ask me, but I'm not sure that all people capable of doing so make great programmers. The connection here is that 3D-thinkers will have a mental model of the calendar whether they realize as much or not. The smartest people will instinctively recognize what you're asking.

Anyway, the nice thing about this question is that it can be answered even if the candidate calls you a sociopath and storms out. If they motion with their hands as they parse the question, that is probably an unconscious answer.

There is no correct response. My "November" is located to the lower left. The calendar forms a very disproportionate ellipse with summer on the top and winter on the bottom. June, July, and August are overhead and roughly equivalent in length to November through May.

Name the Nine Planets

I really want to use this as a basic litmus test, but this is foiled by the fact that I know some very competent programmers who would not have answered it correctly. I really can't believe this–if you ask me, this is a trivia question only if "the sun revolves around the Earth, true or false" is a trivia question. It’s inconceivable to me that someone can know all of the words to Bird Dream of the Olympus Mons without caring where Olympus Mons is.

This question is deceptively open-ended. The candidate can get some major bonus points if they tell you that there are actually eight, ten, or eleven planets, you retard.

Disclaimer: this is mostly a humor piece, and I actually do make an attempt to keep things professional. So in other words, don't come crying to me if acting crazy gets you sued. This should not be attempted by amateurs.

Exploit Natural Mappings in Interface Design

The on-screen guide for my Direct TV box looks roughly like this:

DirectTV blows

The control on my remote that causes the current channel to move up and down looks like this:

DirectTV blows

If the problem here is obvious to you, you too may have a future in user interface design. If you thought to yourself, "hey, they screwed up an obvious natural mapping," then you are probably already involved on some level.

Just to make it perfectly clear what I am talking about, the orientation of the controls are out of whack. From my perspective, the channels increase going down on the screen but going up on the remote. The fact that the two don't match causes me to change the channel up when I meant to change it down, and vice versa, pretty much constantly.

You might call me a moron, and most days you might be right, but not here. This design is broken. It should do what I want without requiring me to stop to think about it.

It's amazing that decades after the publication of The Design of Everyday Things that it is still possible for a well-funded company to make this mistake. This company has enough money to buy the NFL through 2010, but apparently it isn't able to find a decent interface designer.

Most of the Information on the Internet is Wrong

Attention reader: this website may contain terrible advice and fundamentally flawed code samples. Personally, I don't believe this to be the case, but my advice to you is to read it as if that were true. That you should question everything you read is not a principle unique to technical websites, of course. However, I have found that some very smart people are willing to suspend disbelief when they see code written on some idiot's website.

I have complained about the Code Project website before. Although there are some exceptional articles on it, and many useful samples, these are dwarfed by the sheer volume of terrible ideas. There is a rating system, but this is only a halfassed attempt to filter out the crap. Fact is, the names of API functions bring in traffic. Code quality is not part of the pagerank formula.

My objective isn't to single out the Code Project - it is only the most successful of many similar sites. The reason I am mentioning it is because I found the following in an article today:

What we are implementing is called a COM class, so it should have a GUID associated with it. There is a tool you can use to generate a GUID called guidgen.exe, or you can take the one I've generated for you:

[Guid("{21F21921-B0FD-4801-862F-4BC417928574}")]

This is slightly paraphrased, and the GUID is replaced (I'm not sure why, but I would feel bad embarrasing the author by linking to him). It's clear to me that he doesn't fully understand what he is trying to teach, but it probably isn't to the lion's share of ignorant programmers in the world. It's also obvious to me that using a GUID from a website tutorial in commercial software is a profoundly bad idea, but this apparently isn't so for everyone.

I wonder how many senior developers have blown their stack after finally finding this GUID conflict in a subordinate's code? That would be an interesting case study of the law of large numbers.

The phenomenon of blindly accepting anything in virtual print goes in both directions. In addition to giving you lots of things you can do (but shouldn't), sites also tell you things you can't do (but actually, you can). Many are the times I've been told, "sorry, this bug can't be fixed" with a link to a Code Project forum post with some anonymous boob saying, "there's no way to do it." Similar incidents over the years have put me on a hair trigger when it comes to samples.

If you can't trust the MSDN documentation all of the time, you certainly can't trust the plebeians in the forums.

A Plea for Change in Sports Commentary

Here is one football statistic that I never want to hear again:

Team X is 40-0 when they have someone rush for 100 yards.

The conclusion you are supposed to draw is that Team X should try to run the football. Here's one way you could rephrase the statistic:

Team X does a pretty good job of winning when they're winning.

It's post hoc reasoning, people! Come on! I'm starting to think Howard Cosell was on to something when he spent years hating on Frank Gifford because he was not a trained sports journalist. I don't have a high opinion of journalists either, but now the Giffords are the norm in the commentary business. The intelligence of the analysis suffers. I'm all for coaches-as-commentators, but I think we should all agree that players-as-commentators is not working out.

Press Innumeracy

I just finished reading this Reuters story, "Rising Sea Levels Threaten New Jersey." Nevermind the obvious question of whether we'd really be menaced by the disappearance of New Jersey. I would like to focus on details tangential to the main story, as is my custom.

Notice the next-to-last paragraph,

Worldwide, sea levels are expected to rise between 0.09 and 0.88 meter (0.29 and 2.88 feet) between 1990 and 2100, the report said, citing figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Do you see anything amiss? Many scientists and engineers in the audience have already leapt out of their seats. I will explain the problem anyway, for those of you trained in the humanities.

The issue is one of precision. Or rather, too much of it.

What most likely occurred is that the Journalism major who wrote this lifted the metric figures from the published paper. Writing for a U.S. audience, he obviously needed English equivalents.

If you plug 0.09 and 0.88 meters through a conversion calculator, you get 0.29527559055118110236220472440945 feet and 2.8871391076115485564304461942257 feet, respectively. The author made the rookie mistake of cutting these off at the same number of decimal places.

This author, like most reporters, does not understand significant figures. The trouble is that the metric numbers quoted give one and two significant digits, respectively. His converted numbers erroneously give two and three significant digits.

I have gone to the trouble of rewriting his paragraph for him.

Worldwide, sea levels are expected to rise between 0.09 and 0.88 meter (0.3 and 2.9 feet) between 1990 and 2100, the report said, citing figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

You may think that this is a silly thing for me to be complaining about. Not so. Significant digits are one of the first lessons in every science class, from elementary school through the first few semesters of college. Anyone doing science reporting should at least be familiar with significant digits.

Given this, it is not difficult to understand why there is so much confused and idiotic coverage of the Dover Design trial (I am on board with refusing to call it "Intelligent") and why it is reported at least once a year that the speed of light has been exceeded (Everyone say it together with me: "Phase velocity vs Group velocity").

Don Quixote vs. the Bookstore, Part II

Here is the latest in my correspondence with a bookstore “recommending” Kevin Trudeau’s “Natural Cures ’They’ Don’t Want You to Know About.”

Part I

Don Quixote vs. the Bookstore

There’s nothing like eight hours in various airports to make you want to try to change the world. Here’s an email I just sent to Gary McBrayer of the Hudson Group. I will post any replies I receive.